Seven months gone in 2019, caustic soda market market trend is needless to say, the past has been unable to change.Although the current caustic soda market has not been able to return to the glorious era, this year’s market also let the industry insiders hurt the heart, but there will be surprises in waiting, the continuous depressed atmosphere or will usher in a turn in August, the future is still worth our expectations!
The influencing factors of market trend after alkali tablet
1. Supply of goods in northwest China is getting tighter.
Should according to understand the current majority of manufacturers inventory is relatively low, and there are part of the device is in a state of repair, most of the northwest manufacturers delivery pressure is not big, is combined with the king, YiHua is given priority to with booking, booking for a long time, and at the same time the period be in sign the bill with the aluminum companies, some manufacturers will have longer pre-sale plan, manufacturer of spot supply will tend to be nervous.
2. The increase of replenishment by traders.
According to insiders, the stock in the hands of the current traders is not much, with the continuous decline in the price of caustic soda, the current actual transaction price has fallen to the psychological price of some traders, there is no lack of some empty warehouse traders have replenishment behavior.
3. Alumina production.
Before August, some enterprises in the north were even losing money due to falling alumina prices, so shanxi and henan provinces began to cut production to protect prices.If the large-scale production reduction and closure of enterprises appear successively, the alumina price will reverse at any time. When the alumina price starts to improve, the corresponding production capacity will be restored successively. At that time, not only the demand for flake alkali will increase, but also the purchasing price of flake alkali will not be blindly lowered.Therefore, in the short term, alumina production will benefit the alkali market, but in the medium and long term, it will benefit the alkali market.
4. Downstream printing and dyeing chemical fiber, chemical industry demand increase.
Currently in the high temperature season, downstream enterprises more equipment maintenance start is not high, with the end of the high temperature season, downstream enterprises will continue to start, when the market demand will increase.
To sum up, in the short term, although the market has the conditions for going up, some positive factors are expected to be weakened due to the production reduction of alumina unit, and the negative factors in the alkali sheet market are still the dominant factors, and the possibility of going down in the short term is still large.In the medium and long term, based on the real situation of the 4-point market mentioned above, the future market has a good trend, and the caustic soda market may embrace a turning point.
The last thing to say is that the market is unpredictable, how the final trend depends on the terminal demand, do not blindly operate! The above views are for reference only.
Post time: Aug-20-2019